DYNAMIC ASSESSMENT OF THE ADEQUACY OF FORCES AND RESOURCES FOR FIRE SUPPRESSION IN PUBLIC BUILDINGS AND FORECASTING THE RESOURCE-DEFICIT PERIOD

Abstract

The effectiveness of fire suppression in public buildings is determined not only by how quickly the first unit arrives, but also by the time at which the forces and resources required for a particular tactical scenario become fully available. Although current operational fire-fighting plans specify the required number of personnel and units and their arrival schedules, these two types of information are generally not integrated within a single dynamic criterion. The aim of this study is to develop a method for assessing the time-dependent adequacy of resources required for fire suppression in public buildings and for scenario-based forecasting of the resource-deficit period. Based on approved operational plans for six public facilities in the Samarkand and Tashkent garrisons, the following indicators were calculated: required resource R_req, cumulative available resource over time R_avail(t), resource deficit D(t), deficit window W, time to full requirement coverage t_cov, initial coverage coefficient K_0, and delay in full resource formation Δt_form. For scenarios with an explicitly specified requirement, t_cov ranged from 8.6 to 27 min. At the O-1 religious complex, although the first unit arrived in 2.5 min, the requirement of 24 personnel was fully met only at minute 27; at the O-3 hotel, an initial shortage of only one person prolonged the deficit period to minute 12. Within the garrisons, up to six identical units were found to recur in the plans for certain pairs of facilities, indicating that facility-level estimates may be optimistic under simultaneous multi-incident scenarios. The proposed approach quantitatively distinguishes between first-response time and the time required to assemble the full tactical resource and enables resource adequacy to be evaluated as a function of time in operational planning.