ARIMA FORECASTING OF THE PREVALENCE OF ANEMIA IN CHILDREN IN INDIA

Abstract

Using annual time series data on the prevalence of anemia in children under 5 years of age in India from 1990 – 2016, the study makes predictions for the period 2017 – 2025. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that the ODL series under consideration is an I (0) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents an AR (2) process or the ARIMA (2, 0, 0) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further reveal that the presented model is indeed stable and its residuals are not serially correlated. The results of the study show that the prevalence of anemia in children in India is set to decrease from almost 57% in 2017 to nearly 54.7% by 2025. This is good but that is not a desirable public health outcome, anywhere. For the government of India to accelerate the eradication of anemia in children in the country, nutritional supplementation and food fortification programmes ought to be intensified.