SANCTIONS, SOVEREIGNTY AND REGIONAL BACKLASH: ASSESSING ECOWAS’S COERCIVE DIPLOMACY TOWARDS MILITARY REGIMES IN WEST AFRICA, 2020–2026

Abstract

This study evaluated the effectiveness and political implications of the Economic Community of West African States' coercive diplomacy against military rule in Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso and Niger from August 2020 to September 2026. It questioned the impact of suspension, targeted restrictions, comprehensive economic sanctions, diplomatic isolation and threatened force on transition behaviour and when they exacerbated sovereignty-based resistance and regional fragmentation. It was a qualitative comparative narrative research. ECOWAS instruments, demand, transmission mechanism, concession, constitutional outcome and regional consequences are coded. The theory of coercive diplomacy and the Regional Security Complex (RSC) Theory were used as analytical frameworks. The results indicated two propositions. One, ECOWAS incurred visible costs and, in some instances, won concessions that were sometimes short-term, but rarely obtained its ultimate goal: a swift return of the displaced constitutional powers. Results were greatest when demands were modest, a credible exit was available and linked to the demands, and when military rulers had no way to pass on the costs to civilians or deadlines were not too long. Second, there were also wide and obvious punitive actions that reinforced anti-interference narratives, fostered solidarity among the Sahelian regimes and helped to institutionalize a counter-alignment through the Alliance of Sahel States. Partial formal compliance demonstrated by Guinea's eventual elections, but the former junta leader's triumph also shows that there are differences between electoral completion and democratic restoration. The study proposed that the ECOWAS anti-coup norm must be upheld while collective punishment is replaced by graduated and targeted sanctions, which should be reviewed, inclusive mediation and humanitarian safeguards are put in place, and preventive measures are taken against military coups and civilian constitutional manipulation