UNDERSTANDING DIASPORA REMITTANCES LEVELS IN ZIMBABWE (2009-2020) INCLUDING FUTURE FORECASTS USING ARIMA TECHNIQUE (2020-2022)

Abstract

Governments across the globe are progressively becoming aware of the increasing significance of international migration and remittances on the international development agenda. Remittances are perceived as one of the key benefits that migration bring to originating countries. Zimbabweans abroad do sent money and goods back to their country of origin, and these are known as diaspora remittances. Remittances do contribute to national development if harnessed into the national economy. The economic turnaround stories of Asian economic giants such as South Korea, China and India in the 1960s to date are also attributed to the contributions made by their expatriates in the diaspora. The funds were mainly channeled towards infrastructure and industrial development. For Zimbabwe, there is a decline in diaspora remittances over the years against an increase in migrants to other countries. Acknowledging the usefulness of diaspora remittances to economic development, the study seeks to analyse the trend from 2009 to 2020, including forecasts. The study recommends that the government of Zimbabwe should work on policies that would encourage the Zimbabweans in the diaspora to remit more to their country. Investments by migrants beyond remittances can change the development landscape of local communities, if appropriate options are given. In framing policies, there is greater need to consider the existence of first-generation and second-generation migrants. Worth to note also is that relying too much on remittances can also delay structural changes in the domestic economy.