OPEN DEFECATION IN BOTSWANA: A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH

Abstract

Using annual time series data on the number of people who practice open
defecation in Botswana from 2000 – 2017, the study predicts the annual number
of people who will still be practicing open defecation over the period 2018 –
2021. The research applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic
ADF tests show that the BOD series under consideration is an I (2) variable.
Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (1, 2, 0) model as the optimal
model. The diagnostic tests further show that the presented model is stable and
its residuals are stationary in levels. The findings of the study indicate that the
number of people practicing open defecation in Botswana is likely to decline,
over the period 2018 – 2022, from approximately 10.4% to almost 8.1% of the
total population. Indeed, it is possible to create an open defecation free society
in Botswana. The study suggested a 3-fold policy recommendation to be put into
consideration, especially by the government of Botswana.