ARIMA FORECASTING OF THE PREVALENCE OF ANEMIA IN CHILDREN IN THE GAMBIA

Abstract

Using annual time series data on the prevalence of anemia in children under 5 years of age in Yemen from 1990 – 2016, the study makes predictions for the period 2017 – 2025. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that, AG, the series under consideration is an I (0) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents an AR (3) process, the ARIMA (3, 0, 0) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further prove that the presented model is stable and its residuals are not serially correlated. The results of the study indicate that the prevalence of anemia in children in The Gambia is projected to slightly rise over the out-of-sample period by approximately 1.2%. This implies that the prevalence of anemia in children under the age of five in The Gambia will remain very high.